2027年5月17日星期一

三丽鸥彩虹乐园 · 预测

Forecast model · 均衡

Balances weekday, seasonal and event effects.

Inputs and validation

Uses each park’s observations and up to three years of weekday, holiday, seasonal, vacation and verified event patterns. Recorded results do not change with the model.

Event dates cover selected verified Disney and USJ events. Unregistered events, local school calendars, weather and future ride closures are excluded. Vacation periods are general seasonal estimates.

Wait-time baseline: 2 days (2026-10-29–2026-10-31)
Historical patterns: 853 days (2023-11-02–2026-10-26)

Two-year training / one-year holdout, with the rank scale frozen before validation

2023-10-27–2025-10-26 → 2025-10-27–2026-10-26 (308 days)

Model	Mean error	Rank match
相似日期优先	5.9 min	45.1%
活动优先	5.7 min	49.7%
均衡	5.8 min	46.8%
Reference: constant mean	7 min	35.7%

Validation of a consistent archived metric; these scores do not measure the accuracy of current all-attraction averages or hourly forecasts.

External history contributes relative effects within each park and measurement series. Crowd points are never treated as minutes. These are provisional alternatives; no model is guaranteed to be more accurate.

预测

适中

预测平均等候时间19分

可能波动范围：0～48分

工作日按星期、节假日和季节调整過去2日分の実績を参照以此乐园实际等候时间为基准 · 初步

预测可信度：初步
请作为选择游园日期的参考。

如何理解预测

Indicative attraction-average waits based on historical records and similar weekdays and holidays. This does not measure attendance or guarantee any individual wait.

天气预报仅供参考，目前尚未用于拥挤预测模型。

汇总时间：2026/11/1 22:25 JST

HOURLY WAIT FORECAST

Hourly wait forecasts by attraction

CForecast for this date
预测可信度：初步

Estimated from historical days with similar crowd ranks and weekdays. Each cell shows an estimate and indicative range in minutes.

Historical records used：2026-10-29〜2026-10-31（2日）
Opening hours are not yet announced. Times shown reflect historical observations.

游乐设施

全园等候时间

暂无营业时间 · 08:00–17:00分 · 日本时间

预测初步

08:00 JST

记录—

预测5分08:00–09:00

选择时刻

每小时平均值仅包含有预测数据的设施，缺失值不计为零。游乐设施 3–7/10

预测可信度：初步 · Historical records used 2026-10-29–2026-10-31

0–10分11–18分19–24分25–32分33–43分44+分以此乐园实际等候时间为基准 · 初步

Predicted wait (minutes), with indicative range below
游乐设施	08:00	09:00	10:00	11:00	12:00	13:00	14:00	15:00	16:00
Marchen Theater	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Entertainment Hall	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Fairy Land Theater	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Sanrio Character Boat Ride	105〜151 days	6030〜901 days	6535〜1002 days	5025〜702 days	5025〜752 days	5025〜752 days	5025〜752 days	5025〜701 days	5025〜852 days
Discovery Theater	—	50〜101 days	205〜252 days	155〜202 days	105〜152 days	155〜202 days	155〜202 days	105〜152 days	105〜152 days
~My Melody & KUROMI~ Mymeroad Drive	50〜101 days	1510〜251 days	4520〜652 days	3515〜502 days	3515〜552 days	4520〜652 days	4520〜652 days	4020〜602 days	3515〜502 days
Strawberry Hall [Character Greeting Residence]	50〜101 days	50〜101 days	50〜102 days	50〜101 days	50〜101 days	50〜101 days	—	—	—
~Kiki & Lala~ Twinklingstudio	—	50〜101 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days
Lady kitty house	—	50〜101 days	105〜152 days	155〜202 days	155〜252 days	2510〜402 days	2515〜402 days	2010〜352 days	3015〜451 days
BUDDYEDDY WONDERFUL CLUB	—	—	—	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜101 days

Blank cells indicate insufficient data, not zero waits. Forecasts based on few days are provisional. Ranges are not statistical confidence intervals. Weather, closures and events may change waits.

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