东京迪士尼乐园拥挤日历.

寻找适合游园的好日子。
浏览全年记录与预测。

未来12个月Based on records, weekdays and holidays

Forecast model · 均衡

Balances weekday, seasonal and event effects.

Inputs and validation

Uses each park’s observations and up to three years of weekday, holiday, seasonal, vacation and verified event patterns. Recorded results do not change with the model.

Event dates cover selected verified Disney and USJ events. Unregistered events, local school calendars, weather and future ride closures are excluded. Vacation periods are general seasonal estimates.

Wait-time baseline: 16 days (2026-10-16–2026-11-01)
Historical patterns: 571 days (2023-11-02–2025-05-29)

Mean absolute error for recent past dates, using only earlier observations: 3.9 min (13 days)

Annual accuracy is not available: sufficient consistent two-year training and one-year test data are not yet available.

External history contributes relative effects within each park and measurement series. Crowd points are never treated as minutes. These are provisional alternatives; no model is guaranteed to be more accurate.

Compare visit dates

日本时间 · 2026-11-02

通过颜色了解拥挤程度空闲 → 拥挤

以此乐园实际等候时间为基准 · 初步

E空闲D较空闲C适中B较拥挤A拥挤S非常拥挤

实绩 · 混雑ランク / 等候时间虚线·预：预测— 未获取点击日期查看详情

历史实绩 · 577 days · 2023-10-27〜

仅显示已获取数据日期的历史记录。

已保存记录起始日期：2023-10-27〜。拥挤等级以同一乐园、同一指标的历史记录为基准。记录间的缺失时段会自动插值，并标注≈。

拥挤等级与预测说明

按每日平均等待时间比较拥挤程度，并非入园人数。以此乐园实际等候时间为基准 · 初步
E：0–10分　D：11–18分　C：19–24分　B：25–32分　A：33–43分　S：44+分　

使用营业时间记录率至少65%的完整日期，以系数调整工作日、周末、节假日、连休、新年和学校假期。少量数据的预测和未经实测学习的系数均为暂定。

Validation uses only earlier observations and event dates known at the forecast origin. Weather and future ride closures are excluded. Ranges are not statistical confidence intervals.

验证时的平均误差约为3.9分。

外部历史仅用于星期和季节倍率，不与本站实测等待时间混合。
趋势学习天数：571 · 2023-11-02〜2025-05-29

历史数据：Powered by ThemeParks.wiki。后续将持续记录官方应用的等候时间数据。

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