正在加载乐园信息
寻找适合游园的好日子。
浏览全年记录与预测。
Balances weekday, seasonal and event effects.
Uses each park’s observations and up to three years of weekday, holiday, seasonal, vacation and verified event patterns. Recorded results do not change with the model.
Event dates cover selected verified Disney and USJ events. Unregistered events, local school calendars, weather and future ride closures are excluded. Vacation periods are general seasonal estimates.
Wait-time baseline: 2 days (2026-10-30–2026-10-31)
Historical patterns: 970 days (2023-11-01–2026-10-26)
Two-year training / one-year holdout, with the rank scale frozen before validation
2023-10-27–2025-10-26 → 2025-10-27–2026-10-26 (326 days)
| Model | Mean error | Rank match |
|---|---|---|
| 相似日期优先 | 4.1 min | 29.8% |
| 活动优先 | 3.5 min | 41.7% |
| 均衡 | 3.6 min | 36.2% |
| Reference: constant mean | 5.7 min | 14.7% |
Validation of a consistent archived metric; these scores do not measure the accuracy of current all-attraction averages or hourly forecasts.
External history contributes relative effects within each park and measurement series. Crowd points are never treated as minutes. These are provisional alternatives; no model is guaranteed to be more accurate.
以此乐园实际等候时间为基准 · 初步
已保存记录起始日期：2023-10-27〜。拥挤等级以同一乐园、同一指标的历史记录为基准。记录间的缺失时段会自动插值，并标注≈。
按每日平均等待时间比较拥挤程度，并非入园人数。 以此乐园实际等候时间为基准 · 初步
E：0–13分 D：14–22分 C：23–30分 B：31–40分 A：41–53分 S：54+分
使用营业时间记录率至少65%的完整日期，以系数调整工作日、周末、节假日、连休、新年和学校假期。少量数据的预测和未经实测学习的系数均为暂定。
Validation uses only earlier observations and event dates known at the forecast origin. Weather and future ride closures are excluded. Ranges are not statistical confidence intervals.
外部历史仅用于星期和季节倍率，不与本站实测等待时间混合。
趋势学习天数：970 · 2023-11-01〜2026-10-26
历史数据：Powered by ThemeParks.wiki。后续将持续记录官方应用的等候时间数据。