2027年5月23日星期日

三丽鸥彩虹乐园 · 预测

Forecast model · 均衡

Balances weekday, seasonal and event effects.

Inputs and validation

Uses each park’s observations and up to three years of weekday, holiday, seasonal, vacation and verified event patterns. Recorded results do not change with the model.

Event dates cover selected verified Disney and USJ events. Unregistered events, local school calendars, weather and future ride closures are excluded. Vacation periods are general seasonal estimates.

Wait-time baseline: 3 days (2026-10-29–2026-11-01)
Historical patterns: 853 days (2023-11-02–2026-10-26)

Two-year training / one-year holdout, with the rank scale frozen before validation

2023-10-27–2025-10-26 → 2025-10-27–2026-10-26 (308 days)

Model	Mean error	Rank match
相似日期优先	5.9 min	45.1%
活动优先	5.7 min	49.7%
均衡	5.8 min	46.8%
Reference: constant mean	7 min	35.7%

Validation of a consistent archived metric; these scores do not measure the accuracy of current all-attraction averages or hourly forecasts.

External history contributes relative effects within each park and measurement series. Crowd points are never treated as minutes. These are provisional alternatives; no model is guaranteed to be more accurate.

正在显示上次保存的汇总，尚未确认最新数据更新。

预测

较拥挤

预测平均等候时间34分

可能波动范围：4～64分

周末按星期、节假日和季节调整過去3日分の実績を参照以此乐园实际等候时间为基准 · 初步

预测可信度：初步
请作为选择游园日期的参考。

如何理解预测

Indicative attraction-average waits based on historical records and similar weekdays and holidays. This does not measure attendance or guarantee any individual wait.

天气预报仅供参考，目前尚未用于拥挤预测模型。

汇总时间：2026/11/2 03:00 JST

HOURLY WAIT FORECAST

Hourly wait forecasts by attraction

BForecast for this date
预测可信度：初步

Showing the last saved forecast.

Estimated from historical days with similar crowd ranks and weekdays. Each cell shows an estimate and indicative range in minutes.

Historical records used：2026-10-29〜2026-11-01（3日）
Opening hours are not yet announced. Times shown reflect historical observations.

游乐设施

全园等候时间

暂无营业时间 · 08:00–18:00分 · 日本时间

预测初步

08:00 JST

记录—

预测15分08:00–09:00

选择时刻

Showing the last saved forecast.

每小时平均值仅包含有预测数据的设施，缺失值不计为零。游乐设施 3–7/10

预测可信度：初步 · Historical records used 2026-10-29–2026-11-01

0–11分12–19分20–27分28–35分36–47分48+分以此乐园实际等候时间为基准 · 初步

Predicted wait (minutes), with indicative range below
游乐设施	08:00	09:00	10:00	11:00	12:00	13:00	14:00	15:00	16:00	17:00
Marchen Theater	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Entertainment Hall	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Fairy Land Theater	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Sanrio Character Boat Ride	50〜102 days	8040〜1202 days	8040〜1203 days	7035〜1103 days	8040〜1203 days	8540〜1303 days	8540〜1252 days	7540〜1151 days	9045〜1353 days	—
Discovery Theater	—	50〜102 days	4020〜603 days	3515〜503 days	3015〜453 days	2010〜303 days	3015〜503 days	3515〜553 days	3515〜553 days	4520〜651 days
~My Melody & KUROMI~ Mymeroad Drive	50〜102 days	3515〜552 days	5525〜803 days	5025〜753 days	5025〜803 days	6030〜853 days	6530〜1003 days	7035〜1053 days	5025〜803 days	3015〜501 days
Strawberry Hall [Character Greeting Residence]	50〜102 days	50〜102 days	50〜103 days	50〜102 days	105〜151 days	105〜151 days	—	—	—	—
~Kiki & Lala~ Twinklingstudio	—	50〜102 days	50〜103 days	50〜103 days	105〜153 days	50〜103 days	105〜153 days	155〜253 days	55〜153 days	105〜151 days
Lady kitty house	3520〜551 days	6030〜902 days	6015〜903 days	5525〜803 days	5525〜853 days	7035〜1053 days	7035〜1053 days	7530〜1153 days	6030〜902 days	—
BUDDYEDDY WONDERFUL CLUB	—	—	—	50〜103 days	50〜103 days	50〜103 days	50〜103 days	50〜103 days	105〜151 days	—

Blank cells indicate insufficient data, not zero waits. Forecasts based on few days are provisional. Ranges are not statistical confidence intervals. Weather, closures and events may change waits.

选择乐园