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Find your next perfect park day.
Explore a year of records and forecasts.
Balances weekday, seasonal and event effects.
Uses each park’s observations and up to three years of weekday, holiday, seasonal, vacation and verified event patterns. Recorded results do not change with the model.
Event dates cover selected verified Disney and USJ events. Unregistered events, local school calendars, weather and future ride closures are excluded. Vacation periods are general seasonal estimates.
Wait-time baseline: 2 days (2026-10-30–2026-10-31)
Historical patterns: 970 days (2023-11-01–2026-10-26)
Two-year training / one-year holdout, with the rank scale frozen before validation
2023-10-27–2025-10-26 → 2025-10-27–2026-10-26 (326 days)
| Model | Mean error | Rank match |
|---|---|---|
| Similar days | 4.1 min | 29.8% |
| Events | 3.5 min | 41.7% |
| Balanced | 3.6 min | 36.2% |
| Reference: constant mean | 5.7 min | 14.7% |
Validation of a consistent archived metric; these scores do not measure the accuracy of current all-attraction averages or hourly forecasts.
External history contributes relative effects within each park and measurement series. Crowd points are never treated as minutes. These are provisional alternatives; no model is guaranteed to be more accurate.
Relative to this park's recorded waits · Provisional
Historical results · 975 days · 2023-10-27〜
History begins: 2023-10-27〜。Crowd ranks compare historical records for the same park and measure. Gaps between records are filled automatically and marked ≈.
Crowds are compared using daily average waits, not visitor counts. Relative to this park's recorded waits · Provisional
E：0–13 min D：14–22 min C：23–30 min B：31–40 min A：41–53 min S：54+ min
Completed days with at least 65% coverage are adjusted for weekdays, weekends, holidays, long weekends, New Year and school breaks. Sparse forecasts and factors not yet learned from observations are provisional.
Validation uses only earlier observations and event dates known at the forecast origin. Weather and future ride closures are excluded. Ranges are not statistical confidence intervals.
External history is used only for weekday and seasonal ratios, and is kept separate from our observed waits.
Days used to learn patterns：970 · 2023-11-01〜2026-10-26
Historical data: Powered by ThemeParks.wiki. We continue recording official app wait-time data.