東京迪士尼海洋人潮日曆.

尋找適合遊園的好日子。
瀏覽全年記錄與預測。

未來12個月參考歷史紀錄、星期及假日

Forecast model · 均衡

Balances weekday, seasonal and event effects.

Inputs and validation

Uses each park’s observations and up to three years of weekday, holiday, seasonal, vacation and verified event patterns. Recorded results do not change with the model.

Event dates cover selected verified Disney and USJ events. Unregistered events, local school calendars, weather and future ride closures are excluded. Vacation periods are general seasonal estimates.

Wait-time baseline: 16 days (2026-10-16–2026-11-01)
Historical patterns: 994 days (2023-11-02–2026-10-26)

Mean absolute error for recent past dates, using only earlier observations: 5.3 min (13 days)

Annual accuracy is not available: sufficient consistent two-year training and one-year test data are not yet available.

External history contributes relative effects within each park and measurement series. Crowd points are never treated as minutes. These are provisional alternatives; no model is guaranteed to be more accurate.

Compare visit dates

日本時間 · 2026-11-02

透過顏色了解擁擠程度空閒 → 擁擠

以此樂園實際等候時間為基準 · 初步

E空閒D較空閒C一般B稍擁擠A擁擠S非常擁擠

實績 · 混雑ランク / 等候時間虛線·預：預測— 未獲取點擊日期看詳情

歷史實績 · 1000天資料 · 2023-10-27〜

僅顯示已取得資料日期的歷史記錄。

已儲存記錄起始日期：2023-10-27〜。擁擠等級以同一樂園、同一指標的歷史紀錄為基準。紀錄間的缺失時段會自動內插，並標註≈。

擁擠等級與預測說明

依每日平均等候時間比較擁擠程度，並非入園人數。以此樂園實際等候時間為基準 · 初步
E：0–16分　D：17–27分　C：28–37分　B：38–49分　A：50–65分　S：66+分　

使用營業時間記錄率至少65%的完整日期，以係數調整平日、週末、假日、連假、新年和學校假期。少量資料的預測和未經實測學習的係數均為暫定。

Validation uses only earlier observations and event dates known at the forecast origin. Weather and future ride closures are excluded. Ranges are not statistical confidence intervals.

驗證時的平均誤差約為5.3分。

外部歷史僅用於星期和季節倍率，不與本站實測等候時間混合。
趨勢學習天數：994 · 2023-11-02〜2026-10-26

歷史數據：Powered by ThemeParks.wiki。後續將持續記錄官方應用的等候時間數據。

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